February 12, 2008

Twitter userbase growing faster than expected

On January 6, 2008 I predicted that Twitter would reach 1 million users (with a public profile) before April 1, 2008.

I have been tracking since then the number of Twitter users as reported by Twitdir. It looks like Twitter's userbase is growing faster than initially estimated. The dotted line on the graph below shows the estimated growth, the solid line the actual number of Twitter users. I have no doubt that the 1 million user mark will be reached before March 1, 2008.

3 comments:

Derrick Kwa said...

As a Twitter user, that's really good news. =).

Just wondering, though. How'd you arrive at the estimated growth graph? Personally, I wouldn't have expected the 'estimated growth' to be that way. I'd have expected a more curved, almost exponential graph. Metcalfe's law and all. Was just wondering about the reasoning behind the estimated growth.

All in all, though, it's great to hear about Twitter's growth. And the stability finally seems to have settled after the last few weeks of ups-and-downs. Looking good for the future.

Scabr said...

Fast growth of Twitter.It is very well.But there is a serious problem.Twitter unstability.Major threat to Twitter community.

bvlg said...

Hi Derrick,

Twitdir started publishing information on the number of Twitter users from June 2007. I observed a linear growth from then on. The extrapolation I made was based on a accelerated linear growth.

There was probably exponential growth from November 2006 until April 2007.

I guess the curve of the number of Twitter users will follow an S-shape curve. Currently there is no sign that the growth is slowing down, on the contrary the growth is still slightly increasing.